BNP and NT-proBNP Thresholds for the Assessment of Prognosis in Patients Without Heart Failure

Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal-pro hormone brain natriuretic peptides (NT-proBNP) enable risk stratification, diagnosing, and monitoring of heart failure patients. An additional prognostic value for BNP/NT-proBNP in nonheart failure patients and general population cohorts is described in the literature, but specific cut-off levels are only described for heart failure patients.

This study aimed to determine thresholds for risk stratification in nonheart failure patients.

Based on the Essen Coronary Artery Disease registry we excluded patients with known heart failure or elevated BNP/NT-pro BNP levels. The resulting cohort was divided into a derivation and validation cohort using random sampling. The prognostic value of BNP/NT-proBNP of incident mortality was evaluated in the derivation cohort using univariate and multivariable cox regression analysis. In receiver operating characteristic analysis and corresponding area under the curve the optimal threshold was determined using Youdens J index. The findings were verified in the validation cohort.

A total of 3,690 patients (age 62.9 ± 12.5 years, 71% male, 68% patients with coronary artery disease) were included. During a mean follow-up of 2.6 ± 3.4 years (median 1.2 [IQR: 0.4-2.88]), 169 deaths of any cause occurred. Based on Youden's J index, BNP-thresholds of 9.6 and 29pg/ml and NT-proBNP thresholds of 65 and 77pg/ml for men and women, respectively, were determined. BNP/NT-proBNP levels above these thresholds were associated with increased mortality in the derivation cohort (HR: 2.44 [95% CI: 1.32-4.53], P = 0.005). The predictive value was confirmed in the validation cohort (HR: 2.78 [95% CI: 1.26-6.14], P = 0.01).

We here describe sex-specific BNP/NT-proBNP thresholds that allow prediction of impaired survival in patients without heart failure, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.