Quantifying the Survival Loss Linked to Late Therapeutic Indication in High-Gradient Severe Aortic Stenosis

International guidelines recommend aortic valve replacement (AVR) as Class I triggers in high-gradient severe aortic stenosis (HGSAS) patients with symptoms and/or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50%. The association between waiting for these triggers and postoperative survival penalty is poorly studied.

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of guideline-based Class I triggers on long-term postoperative survival in HGSAS patients.

2,030 patients operated for HGSAS were included and classified as follows: no Class I triggers (no symptoms and LVEF >50%, n = 853), symptoms with LVEF >50% (n = 965), or LVEF <50% regardless of symptoms (n = 212). Survival was compared after matching (inverse probability weighting) for clinical differences. Restricted mean survival time was analyzed to quantify lifetime loss.

Ten-year survival was better without any Class I trigger than with symptoms or LVEF <50% (67.1% ± 3% vs 56.4% ± 3% vs 53.1% ± 7%, respectively, P < 0.001). Adjusted death risks increased significantly in operated patients with symptoms (HR: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.15-1.82]) or LVEF <50% (HR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.05-2.06]) than in those without Class I triggers. Performing AVR with LVEF >60% produced similar outcomes to that of the general population, whereas operated patients with LVEF <60% was associated with a 10-year postoperative survival penalty. Furthermore, according to restricted mean survival time analyses, operating on symptomatic patients or with LVEF <60% led to 8.3- and 11.4-month survival losses, respectively, after 10 years, compared with operated asymptomatic patients with a LVEF >60%.

Guideline-based Class I triggers for AVR in HGSAS have profound consequences on long-term postoperative survival, suggesting that HGSAS patients should undergo AVR before trigger onset. Operating on patients with LVEF <60% is already associated with a 10-year postoperative survival penalty questioning the need for an EF threshold recommending AVR in HGSAS patients.