Risk factors and a predictive model for left ventricular hypertrophy in young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension

Salt-sensitive hypertension is common among individuals with essential hypertension, and the prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has increased. However, data from early identification of the risk of developing LVH in young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension are lacking. Thus, the present study aimed to design a nomogram for predicting the risk of developing LVH in young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension. A retrospective analysis of 580 patients with salt-sensitive hypertension was conducted. The training set consisted of 70% (n = 406) of the patients, while the validation set consisted of the remaining 30% (n = 174). Based on multivariate analysis of the training set, predictors for LVH were extracted to develop a nomogram. Discrimination curves, calibration curves, and clinical utility were employed to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The final simplified nomogram model included age, sex, office systolic blood pressure, duration of hypertension, abdominal obesity, triglyceride-glucose index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In the training set, the model demonstrated moderate discrimination, as indicated by an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.863 (95% confidence interval: 0.831-0.894). The calibration curve exhibited good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities of LVH in the training set. Additionally, the validation set further confirmed the reliability of the prediction nomogram. In conclusions, the simplified nomogram, which consists of seven routine clinical variables, has shown good performance and clinical utility in identifying young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension who are at high risk of LVH at an early stage.