A system dynamics modelling and analytical framework for imported dengue outbreak surveillance and risk mapping

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• System Dynamics (SD) models are valuable for understanding complex disease transmission.
• A gap exists between dengue transmission research and practical public health decision-making tools.
• Spain faces risks from imported dengue outbreaks, yet lacks quantitative assessments for control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a modular System Dynamics model for simulating dengue outbreaks from imported cases in Spain.
• To account for heterogeneous, climate-driven transmission patterns across different provinces.
• To provide a flexible, evidence-based tool for public health decision-making.

Main Methods:

• A modular System Dynamics model was developed, integrating temperature-dependent vector populations and transmission parameters.
• The model simulates dengue outbreaks originating from imported cases.
• It incorporates heterogeneous local climate-related transmission patterns and epidemiological interactions.

Main Results:

• Fifteen Spanish provinces were identified as capable of sustaining vector populations that could generate outbreaks from imported cases.
• Heterogeneous risk profiles were observed, varying in seasonality, magnitude, and timing (late Spring to early Autumn).
• Model results are relative to vector-to-human populations, allowing for scalable application across geographic areas.

Conclusions:

• The developed System Dynamics model and framework can support public health by integrating transmission dynamics into decision-making.
• It offers a flexible tool adaptable to various contexts, parametrizations, and epidemiological settings.
• The model provides quantitative insights to guide evidence-based control strategies for imported dengue cases in Spain.