Efficiency of pulmonary nodule risk scoring systems in Turkish population

Malignancy risk calculation models were developed using the clinical and radiological features. It was aimed to compare pulmonary nodule risk calculation models and evaluate their effectiveness and applicability for the Turkish population. Between 2014 and 2019, 351 patients who were operated on for pulmonary nodules were evaluated with the following data: age, gender, smoking history, family history of lung cancer, extrapulmonary malignancy and granulomatous disease, nodule diameter, attenuation character, side, localization, spiculation, nodule count, presence of pulmonary emphysema, FDG uptake in PET/CT of the nodule, and definitive pathology data. Malignancy risk scores were calculated using the equations of the Brock, Mayo, and Herder models. The results were evaluated statistically. The mean age of the 351 patients (236 men, 115 women) was 57.84 ± 10.87 (range 14-79) years, and 226 malignant and 125 benign nodules were observed. Significant correlations were found between malignancy and age (p < 0.001), nodule diameter (p < 0.001), gender (p < 0.009), speculation (p < 0.001), emphysema (p < 0.05), FDG uptake (p < 0.001). All three models were found effective in the differentiation (p < 0.001). The ideal threshold value was determined for the Brock (19.5%), Mayo (23.1%), and Herder (56%) models. All models were effective for nodules of > 10 mm, but none of them were for 0-10 mm. Brock was effective in ground-glass nodules (p = 0.02) and all models were effective for semi-solid and solid nodules. None of the groups could provide AUC values as high as those achieved in the original studies. This suggests the need to optimize models and malignancy risk thresholds for Turkish population.