CT-based radiomics predicts CD38 expression and indirectly reflects clinical prognosis in epithelial ovarian cancer

Cluster of differentiation 38 (CD38) has been found to be highly expressed in various solid tumours, and its expression level may be associated with patient prognosis and survival. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of CD38 expression for patients with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and construct two computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics models for predicting CD38 expression.

A total of 333 cases of EOC were enrolled from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database for CD38-related bioinformatics and survival analysis. A total of 56 intersection cases from TCGA and The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) databases were selected for radiomics feature extraction and model construction. Logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM) models were constructed and internally validated using 5-fold cross-validation to assess the performance of the models for CD38 expression levels.

High CD38 expression was an independent protective factor (HR = 0.540) for overall survival (OS) in EOC patients. Five radiomics features based on CT images were selected to build models for the prediction of CD38 expression. In the training and internal validation sets, for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the LR model reached an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.739 and 0.732, while the SVM model achieved AUC values of 0.741 and 0.700, respectively. For the precision-recall (PR) curve, the LR and SVM models demonstrated an AUC of 0.760 and 0.721. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) provided evidence supporting the fitness and net benefit of the models.

High levels of CD38 expression can improve OS in EOC patients. CT-based radiomics models can be a new predictive tool for CD38 expression, offering possibilities for individualised survival assessment for patients with EOC.