Stratifying risk of failure to achieve textbook outcomes among patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter score validation study

The concept of textbook outcomes (TOs) has gained increased attention as a critical metric to assess the quality and success of outcomes following complex surgery. A simple yet effective scoring system was developed and validated to predict risk of not achieving textbook outcomes (non-TOs) following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Using a multicenter prospectively collected database, risk factors associated with non-TO among patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC were identified. A predictive scoring system based on factors identified from multivariate regression analysis was used to risk stratify patients relative to non-TO. The score was developed using 70 % of the overall cohort and validated in the remaining 30 %.

Among 3681 patients, 1458 (39.6 %) failied to experience a TO. Based on the derivation cohort, obesity, American Society of Anaesthesiologists score(ASA score), Child-Pugh grade, tumor size, and extent of hepatectomy were identified as independent predictors of non-TO. The scoring system ranged from 0 to 10 points. Patients were categorized into low (0-3 points), intermediate (4-6 points), and high risk (7-10 points) of non-TO. In the validation cohort, the predicted risk of developing non-TOs was 39.0 %, which closely matched the observed risk of 39.9 %. There were no differences among the predicted and observed risks within the different risk categories.

A novel scoring system was able to predict risk of non-TO accurately following hepatectomy for HCC. The score may enable early identification of individuals at risk of adverse outcomes and inform surgical decision-making, and quality improvement initiatives.