When does a parasite become a disease? eDNA unravels complex host-pathogen dynamics across environmental stress...

Infectious diseases stem from disrupted interactions among hosts, parasites, and the environment. Both abiotic and biotic factors can influence infection outcomes by shaping the abundance of a parasite's infective stages, as well as the host's ability to fight infection. However, disentangling these mechanisms within natural ecosystems remains challenging. Here, combining environmental DNA analysis and niche modelling at a regional scale, we uncovered the biotic and abiotic drivers of an infectious disease of salmonid fish, triggered by the parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. We found that the occurrence and abundance of the parasite in the water-i.e., the propagule pressure- were mainly correlated to the abundances of its two primary hosts, the bryozoan Fredericella sultana and the fish Salmo trutta, but poorly to local abiotic environmental stressors. In contrast, the occurrence and abundance of parasites within fish hosts-i.e., proxies for disease emergence-were closely linked to environmental stressors (water temperature, agricultural activities, dams), and to a lesser extent to parasite propagule pressure. These results suggest that pathogen distribution alone cannot predict the risk of disease in wildlife, and that local anthropogenic stressors may play a pivotal role in disease emergence among wild host populations, likely by modulating the hosts' immune response. Our study sheds light on the intricate interplay between biotic and abiotic factors in shaping pathogen distribution and raises concerns about the effects of global change on pathogen emergence.