Imaging meningioma biology: Machine learning predicts integrated risk score in WHO grade 2/3 meningioma

Meningiomas are the most common primary brain tumors. While most are benign (WHO grade 1) and have a favorable prognosis, up to one-fourth are classified as higher-grade, falling into WHO grade 2 or 3 categories. Recently, an integrated risk score (IRS) pertaining to tumor biology was developed and its prognostic relevance was validated in a large, multicenter study. We hypothesized imaging data to be reflective of the IRS. Thus, we assessed the potential of a machine learning classifier for its noninvasive prediction using preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

In total, 160 WHO grade 2 and 3 meningioma patients from 2 university centers were included in this study. All patients underwent surgery with histopathological workup including methylation analysis. Preoperative MRI scans were automatically segmented, and radiomic parameters were extracted. Using a random forest classifier, 3 machine learning classifiers (1 multiclass classifier for IRS and 2 binary classifiers for low-risk and high-risk prediction, respectively) were developed in a training set (120 patients) and independently tested in a hold-out test set (40 patients).

Multiclass IRS classification had a test set area under the curve (AUC) of 0.7, mostly driven by the difficulties in clearly separating medium-risk from high-risk patients. Consequently, a classifier predicting low-risk IRS versus medium-/high-risk showed a very high test accuracy of 90% (AUC 0.88). In particular, "sphericity" was associated with low-risk IRS classification.

The IRS, in particular molecular low-risk, can be predicted from imaging data with high accuracy, making this important prognostic classification accessible by imaging.