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Updated: Jun 22, 2025
Author Spotlight: A Multi-Depth Porcine Model for Comprehensive Study of Burn Injuries and Healing Processes
Published on: February 23, 2024
A 10-year mono-center study on patients with burns ≥70% TBSA: prediction model construction and multicenter
Runzhi Huang1,2, Yuntao Yao3, Linhui Li1,2
1Department of Burn Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University.
Background:
Burn injuries with ≥70% total body surface area (TBSA) are especially acute and life-threatening, leading to severe complications and terrible prognosis, while a powerful model for the prediction of overall survival (OS) is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify prognostic factors for the OS of patients with burn injury ≥70% TBSA and construct and validate a feasible predictive model.
Materials And Methods:
Patients diagnosed with burns ≥70% TBSA admitted and treated between 2010 and 2020 in our hospital were included. A cohort of the patients from the Kunshan explosion were assigned as the validation set. The χ2 test and K-M survival analysis were conducted to identify potential predictors for OS. Then, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the independent factors. Afterward, we constructed a nomogram to predict OS probability. Finally, the Kunshan cohort was applied as an external validation set.
Results:
Sex, the percentage of third-degree and fourth-degree burns as well as organ dysfunction were identified as significant independent factors. A nomogram only based on the factors of the individuals was built and evidenced to have promising predictive accuracy, accordance, and discrimination by both internal and external validation.
Conclusions:
This study recognized significant influencing factors for the OS of patients with burns ≥70% TBSA. Furthermore, our nomogram proved to be an effective tool for doctors to quickly evaluate patients' outcomes and make appropriate clinical decisions at an early stage of treatment.
