Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Plant Breeding

Background:

• Global food demand is rising, necessitating increased food production within planetary boundaries.
• Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural productivity and food security.
• Wheat is a staple crop, and its production must adapt to these evolving conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify potential wheat yield gains using improved sink and source traits.
• To assess associated nitrogen requirements under current and future climate scenarios.
• To evaluate the environmental implications of achieving maximum yield potential.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an ensemble of wheat simulation models.
• Incorporated improved sink and source traits from high-yielding genotypes.
• Simulated scenarios for current and mid-century climate change (RCP8.5) across major wheat-producing regions.

Main Results:

• Improved traits increased wheat yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer levels under both climate scenarios.
• Achieving a 52% yield increase under a high warming scenario necessitates a fourfold rise in fertilizer use.
• Increased fertilizer use leads to unavoidable higher environmental impacts.

Conclusions:

• Enhanced sink and source traits offer significant yield improvements for wheat.
• Realizing full yield potential requires substantial increases in nitrogen fertilizer, posing environmental risks.
• Improving soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency is essential for sustainable wheat production.