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Predicting homelessness: Housing risk insights from latent class analysis
Katherine E Marçal1, Nicholas Barr2
1School of Social Work, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America.
Plos One
|July 5, 2024
Summary
Housing insecurity affects many families, with distinct patterns of financial strain. Missing rent payments significantly increases homelessness risk for mothers, highlighting the need for housing support policies.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Public Health
- Economics
Background:
- Millions of U.S. families with children face housing affordability challenges.
- Housing cost burden increases homelessness risk, yet experiences at the margins are poorly understood.
- Limited knowledge of housing insecurity hinders effective prevention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate variations in housing insecurity experiences among mothers.
- To identify risk profiles associated with subsequent homelessness.
- To inform policy interventions for housing stability.
Main Methods:
- Latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups of housing insecurity.
- The study examined payment behaviors (rent, utilities) and outcomes (shutoffs, eviction).
- Risk profiles were analyzed for association with subsequent homelessness.
Main Results:
- Four housing insecurity subgroups were identified: "Stable," "Unstable," "Rent-Focused," and "Strategic Bill-Paying."
- Mothers missing rent payments showed a higher likelihood of homelessness.
- Prioritizing rent payments correlated with utility shutoffs but housing stability.
Conclusions:
- Housing insecurity manifests in diverse ways, with specific patterns linked to different risks.
- Policies addressing affordable housing, income support, and family benefits are crucial.
- Interventions should focus on preventing rent arrears to mitigate homelessness risk.
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