Residual biomasses at scale: Ensuring future bioeconomy uses outperform current baseline

To shift towards low-fossil carbon economies, making more out of residual biomass is increasingly promoted. Yet, it remains unclear if implementing advanced technologies to reuse these streams really achieves net environmental benefits compared to current management practices. By integrating spatially-explicit resource flow analysis, consequential life cycle assessment (LCA), and uncertainty analysis, we propose a single framework to quantify the residual biomass environmental baseline of a territory, and apply it to the case of France. The output is the environmental threshold that a future large-scale territorial bioeconomy strategy should overpass. For France, we estimate the residual biomass baseline to generate 18.4 ± 2.7 MtCO₂-eq·y^-1 (climate change), 255 ± 35 ktN-eq·y^-1 (marine eutrophication), and 12,300 ± 800 disease incidences per year (particulate matter formation). The current use of crop residues and livestock effluents, being essentially a return to arable lands, was found to represent more than 90 % of total environmental impacts and uncertainties, uncovering a need for more certain data. At present, utilizing residual streams as organic fertilizers fulfills over half of France's total phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) demands. However, it only meets 6 % of the nitrogen demand, primarily because nitrogen is lost through air and water. This, coupled with the overall territorial diagnosis, led us to revisit the idea of using the current situation (based on 2018 data) as a baseline for future bioeconomy trajectories. We suggest that these should rather be compared to a projected baseline accounting for ongoing basic mitigation efforts, estimated for France at 8.5 MtCO₂-eq·y^-1.