Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Coronary Artery Disease Using Extreme Gradient Boosting

Early recognition of coronary artery disease (CAD) could delay its progress and significantly reduce mortality. Sensitive, specific, cost-efficient and non-invasive indicators for assessing individual CAD risk in community population screening are urgently needed.

3112 patients with CAD and 3182 controls were recruited from three clinical centers in China, and differences in baseline and clinical characteristics were compared. For the discovery cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to identify significant features and four machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) were applied to construct models for CAD risk assessment, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and precision-recall (PR) curve were conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy. The optimal model was interpreted by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis and assessed by the ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and validated by two external cohorts.

Using LASSO filtration, all included variables were considered to be statistically significant. Four machine learning models were constructed based on these features and the results of ROC and PR curve implied that the XGBoost model exhibited the highest predictive performance, which yielded a high area of ROC curve (AUC) of 0.988 (95% CI: 0.986-0.991) to distinguish CAD patients from controls with a sensitivity of 94.6% and a specificity of 94.6%. The calibration curve showed that the predicted results were in good agreement with actual observations, and DCA exhibited a better net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. External validation of the model also exhibited favorable discriminatory performance, with an AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.945-0.960), 89.9%, and 87.1% in the validation cohort, and 0.935 (95% CI: 0.915-0.955), 82.0%, and 90.3% in the replication cohort.

Our model is highly informative for clinical practice and will be conducive to primary prevention and tailoring the precise management for CAD patients.