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Risk to reoffend changes over time: Improving correctional programming through progress monitoring
Kelly M Babchishin1, R Karl Hanson1, Seung C Lee2
1Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
Psychological Assessment
|July 8, 2024
Summary
Monitoring sexual recidivism risk is crucial. Recent scores from ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 tools best predict reoffending risk in supervised individuals, highlighting the importance of dynamic risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Forensic Psychology
- Criminology
- Correctional Services
Background:
- Progress monitoring is essential for evidence-based practice in corrections.
- Supervision of individuals who commit sexual offenses requires careful risk assessment due to potential negative outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine different models of progress monitoring for individuals under community supervision for sexual offenses.
- To determine how progress monitoring should inform sexual recidivism risk assessment.
Main Methods:
- Prospective longitudinal study of 2,939 men with a history of sexual offenses.
- Comparison of different scoring models (most recent, worst, best, rolling average) for ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 risk assessment tools.
- Assessment of STABLE-2007's incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99R.
Main Results:
- The most recent scores from ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 were superior predictors of sexual recidivism compared to other scoring models.
- Latest STABLE-2007 scores provided incremental prediction of sexual recidivism beyond baseline risk (Static-99R).
Conclusions:
- Sexual recidivism risk is dynamic and changes over time.
- Repeated assessment of dynamic risk factors enhances community corrections.
- Utilizing recent risk assessment scores improves the accuracy of predicting sexual recidivism.
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