Temporal stratification of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients using disease progression patterns

Identifying groups of patients with similar disease progression patterns is key to understand disease heterogeneity, guide clinical decisions and improve patient care. In this paper, we propose a data-driven temporal stratification approach, ClusTric, combining triclustering and hierarchical clustering. The proposed approach enables the discovery of complex disease progression patterns not found by univariate temporal analyses. As a case study, we use Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), a neurodegenerative disease with a non-linear and heterogeneous disease progression. In this context, we applied ClusTric to stratify a hospital-based population (Lisbon ALS Clinic dataset) and validate it in a clinical trial population. The results unravelled four clinically relevant disease progression groups: slow progressors, moderate bulbar and spinal progressors, and fast progressors. We compared ClusTric with a state-of-the-art method, showing its effectiveness in capturing the heterogeneity of ALS disease progression in a lower number of clinically relevant progression groups.