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Published on: June 5, 2020
Viral hepatitis in China during 2002-2021: epidemiology and influence factors through a country-level modeling study
Ning Sun1,2,3, Fangli He1,2, Jiufeng Sun4
1School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China.
Background:
Viral hepatitis imposes a heavy disease burden worldwide and is also one of the most serious public health problems in China. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis in China and to investigate the influencing factors.
Methods:
We first used the JoinPoint model to analyze the percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of hepatitis in Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2021. We then explored the influencing factors by using the time-series global principal component analysis (GPCA) and the panel fixed-effects model.
Results:
The disease burden varied across different provinces from 2002 to 2021. The AAPC of the total HAV incidence decreased by 10.39% (95% CI: [-12.70%, -8.02%]) from 2002 to 2021. Yet the AAPC of HBV, HCV, and HEV increased by 1.50% (95% CI: [0.23%, 2.79%]), 13.99% (95% CI: [11.28%, 16.77%]), and 7.10% (95% CI: [0.90%, 13.69%]), respectively. The hotspots of HAV, HBV, HCV, and HEV moved from the west to the center, from the northwest to the southeast, from the northeast to the whole country, and from the northeast to the southeast, respectively. Different types of viral hepatitis infections were associated with hygiene, pollutant, and meteorological factors. Their roles in spatial-temporal incidence were expressed by panel regression functions.
Conclusions:
Viral hepatitis infection in China showed spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Interventions should be tailored to its epidemiological characteristics and determinants of viral hepatitis.
