Analysis of the privacy-performance tradeoff of reference testing in Forensic Investigative Genetic Genealogy

During an investigation using Forensic Investigative Genetic Genealogy, which is a novel approach for solving violent crimes and identifying human remains, reference testing-when law enforcement requests a DNA sample from a person in a partially constructed family tree-is sometimes used when an investigation has stalled. Because the people considered for a reference test have not opted in to allow law enforcement to use their DNA profile in this way, reference testing is viewed by many as an invasion of privacy and by some as unethical. We generalize an existing mathematical optimization model of the genealogy process by incorporating the option of reference testing. Using simulated versions of 17 DNA Doe Project cases, we find that reference testing can solve cases more quickly (although many reference tests are required to substantially hasten the investigative process), but only rarely (<1%) solves cases that cannot otherwise be solved. Through a mixture of mathematical and computational analysis, we find that the most desirable people to test are at the bottom of a path descending from an ancestral couple that is most likely to be related to the target. We also characterize the rare cases where reference testing is necessary for solving the case: when there is only one descending path from an ancestral couple, which precludes the possibility of identifying an intersection (e.g., marriage) between two descendants of two different ancestral couples.