Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Conservation Science

Background:

• Biodiversity is under increasing pressure, necessitating ecological and evolutionary predictions for conservation decision-making.
• Understanding the limits of predictability is essential for effective conservation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide realistic expectations for predicting ecological and evolutionary changes over time.
• To introduce and explain the predictive power metric, PP(t).

Main Methods:

• Analysis of population predictability across insects, birds, fishes, and mammals.
• Introduction of the predictive power metric, PP(t), for quantifying predictability.
• Exploration of factors influencing predictability, such as harvesting strategies and data incorporation.

Main Results:

• Fifty percent of populations are predictable at most one year in advance.
• The median one-year-ahead predictive power (R²) is only 20%.
• Predictability can be influenced by factors like harvesting strategies and the inclusion of explanatory variables.

Conclusions:

• Current ecological and evolutionary predictions have limited time horizons and moderate accuracy.
• Enhancing predictability requires leveraging available data, incorporating explanatory variables, and considering time trends.
• Awareness of predictability limits is vital for effective biodiversity loss mitigation and environmental stewardship.