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The Evidence for Evolution02:55

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Biodiversity describes the variety of living things at multiple organizational levels: genetic, species and ecosystem diversity. Species diversity includes all branches of the evolutionary tree from single-celled prokaryotic organisms, bacteria, and archaea, to the eukaryotic kingdoms: plants; animals; fungi; and protists. To date, there have been about 1.75 million species identified, and new species are discovered every week.
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Habitat fragmentation describes the division of a more extensive, continuous habitat into smaller, discontinuous areas. Human activities such as land conversion, as well as slower geological processes leading to changes in the physical environment, are the two leading causes of habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation process typically follows the same steps: perforation, dissection, fragmentation, shrinkage, and attrition.
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Predicting emergent animal biodiversity patterns across multiple scales.

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Accurate ecological models predicting animal biodiversity responses to environmental change are crucial for ecosystem resilience. Developing cross-scale ecological models is the next step for better biodiversity predictions.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Biodiversity Science

Background:

  • Restoring ecosystem resilience and multi-functionality requires accurate predictions of animal biodiversity responses to environmental change.
  • Ecological models are vital for this understanding, particularly those encoding biological mechanisms and processes driving emergent patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review existing mechanistic and process-based ecological models.
  • To establish the need for cross-scale ecological models that integrate interacting scales of biological organization, space, and time.
  • To propose a path forward for developing predictive ecological models.

Main Methods:

  • Distinguishing between 'mechanistic' and 'process-based' ecological models.
  • Reviewing existing approaches and their limitations regarding biological organization and spatiotemporal scales.
  • Proposing systematic evaluation of scale-explicit mechanisms and processes to predict emergent patterns at alternative scales.

Main Results:

  • Mechanistic and process-based models have advanced understanding but are often limited to specific scales.
  • Cross-scale ecological models are identified as a critical next step for predictive ecology.
  • Model intercomparisons are proposed to reveal scale transitions and identify fundamental principles.

Conclusions:

  • Overcoming cross-scale ecological modeling challenges is essential for improving the evidence base to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.
  • Integrating big data and conducting cross-scale field studies are crucial for advancing predictive ecology.
  • Uniting disparate fields of ecology is necessary to address novel environmental change impacts on biodiversity.