A roadmap for modelling radiation-induced cardiac disease

Cardiac risk mitigation is a major priority in improving outcomes for cancer survivors as advances in cancer screening and treatments continue to decrease cancer mortality. More than half of adult cancer patients will be treated with radiotherapy (RT); therefore it is crucial to develop a framework for how to assess and predict radiation-induced cardiac disease (RICD). Historically, RICD was modelled solely using whole heart metrics such as mean heart dose. However, data over the past decade has identified cardiac substructures which outperform whole heart metrics in predicting for significant cardiac events. Additionally, non-RT factors such as pre-existing cardiovascular risk factors and toxicity from other therapies contribute to risk of future cardiac events. In this review, we aim to discuss the current evidence and knowledge gaps in predicting RICD and provide a roadmap for the development of comprehensive models based on three interrelated components, (1) baseline CV risk assessment, (2) cardiac substructure radiation dosimetry linked with cardiac-specific outcomes and (3) novel biomarker development.