Framework for mapping large-scale nature-based solutions for drought mitigation: Regional application in Flanders.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Water Resource Management
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Droughts are costly climate disasters with increasing frequency and intensity.
• Nature-based solutions (NBS) offer effective drought mitigation strategies.
• Existing frameworks lack drought-specific criteria for NBS suitability mapping.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a novel framework for identifying drought-coping NBS suitability at a regional scale.
• To assess the effectiveness of detention basins and managed aquifer recharge for drought mitigation.
• To incorporate drought-specific criteria and climate change scenarios into suitability analysis.

Main Methods:

• Utilized two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques: Boolean logic and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
• Developed a framework incorporating climate change scenarios for surface/groundwater, recharge, and groundwater characteristics.
• Applied the framework regionally in Flanders, Belgium, to map NBS suitability.

Main Results:

• Boolean logic identified 298.7 km² for detention basins and 867.5 km² for managed aquifer recharge in Flanders.
• AHP analysis revealed broader suitability: 2552.2 km² for detention basins and 2538.7 km² for managed aquifer recharge.
• Detention basins showed potential to partially offset high regional groundwater demand.

Conclusions:

• The proposed framework effectively identifies suitable NBS locations for drought management.
• Both Boolean logic and AHP approaches demonstrate the adaptability and scalability of the framework.
• Implementing NBS is vital for sustainable water resource management under increasing drought conditions.