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Updated: Jun 21, 2025
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
A nomogram-based predictive model for tooth survival in Chinese patients with periodontitis: An 11-year retrospective
Shuwen Shi1,2, Yang Meng3, Jian Jiao4
1Department of Periodontology, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology & National Center of Stomatology & National Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases & National Engineering Laboratory for Digital and Material Technology of Stomatology & Beijing Key Laboratory of Digital Stomatology & Research Center of Engineering and Technology for Computerized Dentistry Ministry of Health & NMPA Key Laboratory for Dental Materials, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Aim:
To develop a nomogram-based predictive model of tooth survival by comprehensively analysing clinical and radiographic risk factors of tooth loss (TL).
Materials And Methods:
In this study, 3447 teeth of 131 subjects who underwent non-surgical periodontal treatment were examined retrospectively within a mean follow-up period of 11.6 years. The association of risk factors including clinical and radiographic parameters with TL was assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram-based predictive model was developed, and its validation and discriminatory ability were analysed.
Results:
In all, 313 teeth were lost in 94 patients in this study (overall tooth loss [OTL] 9.08%; 0.21 teeth/patient/year). Male, heavy smoking, molar teeth, probing depth (PD), attachment loss (AL), tooth mobility and radiographic bone loss were significantly associated with TL (p < .05). A gradient effect of tooth mobility on TL increased from degree I to III versus none (p < .0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.865. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrated good performance and high net benefit, respectively.
Conclusions:
Adopting a specific nomogram could facilitate the prediction of tooth survival and the development of tailored treatment plans in Chinese patients with advanced periodontitis.
