Modelling enhancement of Ecosystem Services provision through integrated agri-environment and forestry measures

Agri-environment and forest schemes can support landowners to conserve and enhance agricultural and forest ecosystems. The effectiveness of these schemes is often debated due to discrepancies that occur between the application of such measures and the delivery of Ecosystem Services (ES). We simulated the application of a suite of farmland and forest measures within a range of biophysical contexts in known High Nature Value landscapes across the Republic of Ireland. Three high resolution geospatial scenarios simulated the anticipated effects of the measures: i) a Baseline Scenario of current conditions, ii) an Enhanced Scenario simulated the application of measures, and iii) using the new 'Restoration Planner' freeware, an Enhanced + Connectivity Scenario simulated the application of additional targeted measures for ecosystem connectivity. Across all scenarios, we modelled and compared the responses of a range of ES including: habitat quality, carbon storage, production income and ecosystem connectivity. Multivariate analyses were used to ordinate and determine eight bundles of measures and their associated effect on ES and connectivity. These bundles were subsequently contextualised by examining unique landscape characteristics in which they occurred. The results show that measures applied under the Enhanced Scenario resulted in weak gains to carbon storage (2 %), strong gains to habitat quality (28 %), and weak losses to production income (-7 %) and ecosystem connectivity (-2 %). Similarities were observed under the Enhanced + Connectivity Scenario, though with comparably stronger gains to ecosystem connectivity (15 %). This study is the first to demonstrate the potential synergies and trade-offs to ES that can result from the integrated and targeted application of both farmland and forest measures within a variety of landscape characteristics.