Neural activity during inhibitory control predicts suicidal ideation with machine learning

Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US and worldwide. Current strategies for preventing suicide are often focused on the identification and treatment of risk factors, especially suicidal ideation (SI). Hence, developing data-driven biomarkers of SI may be key for suicide prevention and intervention. Prior attempts at biomarker-based prediction models for SI have primarily used expensive neuroimaging technologies, yet clinically scalable and affordable biomarkers remain elusive. Here, we investigated the classification of SI using machine learning (ML) on a dataset of 76 subjects with and without SI(+/-) (n = 38 each), who completed a neuro-cognitive assessment session synchronized with electroencephalography (EEG). SI+/- groups were matched for age, sex, and mental health symptoms of depression and anxiety. EEG was recorded at rest and while subjects engaged in four cognitive tasks of inhibitory control, interference processing, working memory, and emotion bias. We parsed EEG signals in physiologically relevant theta (4-8 Hz), alpha (8-13 Hz), and beta (13-30 Hz) frequencies and performed cortical source imaging on the neural signals. These data served as SI predictors in ML models. The best ML model was obtained for beta band power during the inhibitory control (IC) task, demonstrating high sensitivity (89%), specificity (98%). Shapley explainer plots further showed top neural predictors as feedback-related power in the visual and posterior default mode networks and response-related power in the ventral attention, fronto-parietal, and sensory-motor networks. We further tested the external validity of the model in an independent clinically depressed sample (n = 35, 12 SI+) that engaged in an adaptive test version of the IC task, demonstrating 50% sensitivity and 61% specificity in this sample. Overall, the study suggests a promising, scalable EEG-based biomarker approach to predict SI that may serve as a target for risk identification and intervention.