A novel predictive model for optimizing diabetes screening in older adults

The fasting blood glucose test is widely used for diabetes screening. However, it may fail to detect early-stage diabetes characterized by elevated postprandial glucose levels. Hence, we developed and internally validated a nomogram to predict the diabetes risk in older adults with normal fasting glucose levels.

This study enrolled 2,235 older adults, dividing them into a Training Set (n = 1,564) and a Validation Set (n = 671) based on a 7:3 ratio. We employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for constructing the nomogram. Calibration and discrimination were employed to assess the nomogram's performance, while its clinical utility was evaluated through decision curve analysis.

Nine key variables were identified as significant factors: age, gender, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, alanine aminotransferase, the ratio of alanine aminotransferase to aspartate aminotransferase, blood urea nitrogen, and hemoglobin. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.824 in the Training Set and 0.809 in the Validation Set. Calibration curves for both sets confirmed the model's accuracy in estimating the actual diabetes risk. Decision curve analysis highlighted the model's clinical utility.

We provided a dynamic nomogram for identifying older adults at risk of diabetes, potentially enhancing the efficiency of diabetes screening in primary healthcare units.