New Perspective to Evaluate the Carbon Offsetting by Urban Blue-Green Infrastructure: Direct Carbon Sequestration and...

Urban blue-green infrastructure (BGI) offers a multitude of ecological advantages to residents, thereby playing a pivotal role in fortifying urban resilience and fostering the development of climate-resilient cities. Nonetheless, current research falls short of a comprehensive analysis of BGI's overall potential for carbon reduction and its indirect carbon reduction impact. To fill this research gap, we utilized the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model and remote sensing estimation algorithm to quantify the direct carbon sequestration and resultant indirect carbon reduction facilitated by the BGI within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) (China). To identify the regions that made noteworthy contributions to carbon offsets and outliers, spatial autocorrelation analysis was also employed. The findings of this study reveal that in 2019, the BGI within the study area contributed an overall carbon offset of 1.5 × 10⁸ t·C/yr, of which 3.5 × 10⁷ and 11.0 × 10⁷ t·C/yr were the result of direct carbon sequestration and indirect carbon reduction, respectively. The GBA's total CO₂ emissions were 1.1 × 10⁸ t in 2019. While the direct carbon sequestration offset 32.0% of carbon emissions, the indirect carbon reduction mitigated 49.9% of potential carbon emissions. These results highlight the critical importance of evaluating BGI's indirect contribution to carbon reduction. The findings of this study provide a valuable reference for shaping management policies that prioritize the protection and restoration of specific areas, thereby facilitating the harmonized development of carbon offset capabilities within urban agglomerations.