Trajectories in long-term condition accumulation and mortality in older adults: a group-based trajectory modelling approach using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Older adults develop long-term conditions (LTC) along distinct trajectories. Identifying these patterns helps predict mortality risk and tailor interventions for better health outcomes.
Area Of Science
- Gerontology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background
- Multimorbidity, the presence of multiple long-term conditions (LTCs), is a growing concern in aging populations.
- Understanding the trajectories of LTC accumulation is crucial for effective healthcare planning and intervention.
Purpose Of The Study
- To classify older adults into distinct clusters based on their long-term condition (LTC) accumulation trajectories.
- To characterize these clusters and quantify their association with all-cause mortality.
Main Methods
- A longitudinal study using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) with 15,091 participants aged 50+ over 9 years.
- Group-based trajectory modeling was employed to identify LTC accumulation patterns.
- Regression models were used to assess associations between trajectory membership, sociodemographics, and mortality.
Main Results
- Five distinct LTC trajectories were identified: 'no LTC', 'single LTC', 'evolving multimorbidity', 'moderate multimorbidity', and 'high multimorbidity'.
- Older age and ethnic minority status were associated with higher multimorbidity trajectories.
- Higher education and employment correlated with a lower likelihood of accumulating multiple LTCs.
- All identified LTC trajectories were associated with increased all-cause mortality compared to the 'no LTC' group.
Conclusions
- Multimorbidity development follows distinct trajectories influenced by age, ethnicity, education, and employment.
- Risk stratification using these trajectories can identify older adults at higher risk of worsening LTC.
- Tailored interventions based on identified trajectories can potentially prevent mortality in older adults.
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