Clinical Validation of Mathematically Derived Early Tumor Dynamics for Solid Tumors in Response to Durvalumab

Early prediction of response to immunotherapy may help guide patient management by identifying resistance to treatment and allowing adaptation of therapies. This analysis evaluated a mathematical model of response to immunotherapy that provides patient-specific prediction of outcome using the initial change in tumor size/burden from baseline to the first follow-up visit on standard imaging scans.

We applied the model to 600 patients with advanced solid tumors who received durvalumab in Study 1108, a phase I/II trial, and compared outcome prediction performance versus size-based criteria with RECIST version 1.1 best overall response (BOR), baseline circulating tumor (ct)DNA level, and other clinical/pathologic predictors of immunotherapy response.

In multiple solid tumors, the mathematical parameter representing net tumor growth rate at the first on-treatment computed tomography (CT) scan assessed around 6 weeks after starting durvalumab (α₁) had a concordance index to predict overall survival (OS) of 0.66-0.77 on multivariate analyses. This measurement of early tumor dynamics significantly improved multivariate OS models that included standard RECIST v1.1 criteria, baseline ctDNA levels, and other clinical/pathologic factors in predicting OS. Furthermore, α₁ was assessed consistently at the first on-treatment CT scan, whereas all traditional RECIST BOR groups were confirmed only after this time.

These results support further exploring α₁ as an integral biomarker of response to immunotherapy. This biomarker may be predictive of further benefit and can be assessed before RECIST response groups can be assigned, potentially providing an opportunity to personalize oncologic management.