Kafka's beautiful eyes: Forensic intelligence utilisation of phenotypic information

Franz Kafka had beautiful eyes. So striking, that many of the famous author's friends and peers commented on them - but quite variously ('dark', 'brown', 'grey' & 'blue'). Eye colour as perceived by an observer is subjective, being influenced by physiological, environmental, and even sociocultural factors. In a policing context, this does not mean that trait information such as eye colour is not valuable (far from it), but that it must be managed carefully. The Australian Federal Police has recently implemented a forensic DNA phenotyping (FDP, aka. physical trait prediction or PTP) capability, utilising massively parallel sequencing DNA technology to predict an individual's eye colour, biogeographical ancestry and sex from a crime scene sample. This information alone is not itself 'intelligence', but can be used to generate intelligence through holistic analyses undertaken within a transdisciplinary, all-source forensic intelligence (FORINT) framework. FORINT outputs posit abductive propositions typically at the activity/offence level, to provide insight and influence decision making. However, the use of predicted traits requires that they are compared to something; all Australian police databases include fields for physical traits, but no uniform standard is applied across all agencies. Moreover, collection is inconsistent and no automated systems are in place to capture such data systematically. Consider the 'Kafka problem': his peers gave multiply divergent descriptions of his eyes. If a Biology unit had predicted the eye colour of an 'unidentified author' using DNA - how would Kafka be confidently nominated as the contributor? We posit three maxims for law enforcement: (1) To expand the operational utility of forensic science in line with police demands, forensic science should operationalise FDP (e.g. operationally to rank a list of persons of interest, focus lines of enquiry in serious & organised crime, or assist with human remains identification). (2) Such advanced biological techniques are best delivered through an all-source FORINT framework, to maximise opportunities and minimise risk. (3) One cannot pursue techno-scientific advancements in isolation; it is also necessary to influence the operational posture for their implementation. In this paper we explore these issues and provide recommendations relating to (a) police practices, (b) image capture systems, and (c) research opportunities. Phenotypic trait prediction has great potential and can be operationalised effectively through a rigorous FORINT framework. However, there is (continual) work to be done to enhance the operational capabilities that are complementary to - but necessary for - effective forensic science contribution to investigations.