Nomogram for predicting the probability of rectal anastomotic re-leakage after stoma closure: a retrospective study

In this study, we aimed to identify the risk factors in patients with rectal anastomotic re-leakage and develop a prediction model to predict the probability of rectal anastomotic re-leakage after stoma closure.

This study was a single-center retrospective analysis of patients with rectal cancer who underwent surgery between January 2010 and December 2020. Among 3225 patients who underwent Total or Partial Mesorectal Excision (TME/PME) surgery for rectal cancer, 129 who experienced anastomotic leakage following stoma closure were enrolled. Risk factors for rectal anastomotic re-leakage were analyzed, and a prediction model was established for rectal anastomotic re-leakage.

Anastomotic re-leakage after stoma closure developed in 13.2% (17/129) of patients. Multivariable analysis revealed that neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (odds ratio, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-14.21; p = 0.03), blood loss > 50 ml (odds ratio, 4.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-15.63; p = 0.02), and intersphincteric resection (intersphincteric resection vs. low anterior resection: odds ratio, 6.85; 95% confidence interval, 2.01-23.36; p = 0.002) were independent risk factors for anastomotic re-leakage. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of anastomotic re-leakage, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.828 in the cohort. Predictive results correlated with the actual results according to the calibration curve.

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, blood loss > 50 ml, and intersphincteric resection are independent risk factors for anastomotic re-leakage following stoma closure. The nomogram can help surgeons identify patients at a higher risk of rectal anastomotic re-leakage.