Machine learning-based prediction of cadmium pollution in topsoil and identification of critical driving factors in a...

Mining activities have resulted in a substantial accumulation of cadmium (Cd) in agricultural soils, particularly in southern China. Long-term Cd exposure can cause plant growth inhibition and various diseases. Rapid identification of the extent of soil Cd pollution and its driving factors are essential for soil management and risk assessment. However, traditional geostatistical methods are difficult to simulate the complex nonlinear relationships between soil Cd and potential features. In this study, sequential extraction and hotspot analyses indicated that Cd accumulation increased significantly near mining sites and exhibited high mobility. The concentration of Cd was estimated using three machine learning models based on 3169 topsoil samples, seven quantitative variables (soil pH, Fe, Ca, Mn, TOC, Al/Si and ba value) and three quantitative variables (soil parent rock, terrain and soil type). The random forest model achieved marginally better performance than the other models, with an R² of 0.78. Importance analysis revealed that soil pH and Ca and Mn contents were the most significant factors affecting Cd accumulation and migration. Conversely, due to the essence of controlling Cd migration being soil property, soil type, terrain, and soil parent materials had little impact on the spatial distribution of soil Cd under the influence of mining activities. Our results provide a better understanding of the geochemical behavior of soil Cd in mining areas, which could be helpful for environmental management departments in controlling the diffusion of Cd pollution and capturing key targets for soil remediation.