Early ctDNA kinetics as a dynamic biomarker of cancer treatment response

Circulating tumor DNA assays are promising tools for the prediction of cancer treatment response. Here, we build a framework for the design of ctDNA biomarkers of therapy response that incorporate variations in ctDNA dynamics driven by specific treatment mechanisms. We develop mathematical models of ctDNA kinetics driven by tumor response to several therapy classes, and utilize them to simulate randomized virtual patient cohorts to test candidate biomarkers. Using this approach, we propose specific biomarkers, based on ctDNA longitudinal features, for targeted therapy, chemotherapy and radiation therapy. We evaluate and demonstrate the efficacy of these biomarkers in predicting treatment response within a randomized virtual patient cohort dataset. These biomarkers are based on novel proposals for ctDNA sampling protocols, consisting of frequent sampling within a compact time window surrounding therapy initiation - which we hypothesize to hold valuable prognostic information on longer-term treatment response. This study highlights a need for tailoring ctDNA sampling protocols and interpretation methodology to specific biological mechanisms of therapy response, and it provides a novel modeling and simulation framework for doing so. In addition, it highlights the potential of ctDNA assays for making early, rapid predictions of treatment response within the first days or weeks of treatment, and generates hypotheses for further clinical testing.