Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Biosecurity
• Invasive Species Management

Background:

• Globalisation of trade and transport drives biological invasions.
• Preventing invasive alien species requires robust biosecurity infrastructures.
• Forecasting potential invaders, especially those without invasion history, remains challenging.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes.
• To support biosecurity decision-making by identifying potential invasive species.
• To disentangle factors influencing species transport/introduction and establishment.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation workflow to estimate invasion syndromes.
• Modeled invasion syndromes using species' life-history, ecological traits, and macroecological patterns.
• Projected models globally for amphibians and reptiles (16,236 species).

Main Results:

• Invasion syndrome models demonstrated high predictive accuracy.
• Transported/introduced species are common and thrive in disturbed habitats.
• Established alien populations comprise large, generalist species with wide native ranges.

Conclusions:

• Forecasted 160 amphibian and reptile species at risk of unintentional introduction.
• Identified 57 species with a high risk of establishing alien populations.
• Developed a reliable, transferable, and robust tool for preventative biosecurity.