Lifetime abortion incidence when abortion care is covered by Medicaid: Maryland versus five comparison states

To estimate the association of Medicaid coverage of abortion care with cumulative lifetime abortion incidence among women insured by Medicaid.

We use 2016-2019 (Pre-Dobbs) data from the Survey of Women studies that represent women aged 18-44 living in six U.S. states. One state, Maryland, has a Medicaid program that has long covered the cost of abortion care. The other five states, Alabama, Delaware, Iowa, Ohio, and South Carolina, have Medicaid programs that do not cover the cost of abortion care. Our sample includes 8972 women residing in the study states.

Our outcome, cumulative lifetime abortion incidence, is identified using an indirect survey method, the double list experiment. We use a multivariate regression of cumulative lifetime abortion on variables including whether women were Medicaid-insured and whether they were residing in Maryland versus in one of the other five states.

This study used secondary survey data.

We estimate that Medicaid coverage of abortion care in Maryland is associated with a 37.0 percentage-point (95% CI: 12.3-61.4) higher cumulative lifetime abortion incidence among Medicaid-insured women relative to women not insured by Medicaid compared with those differences by insurance status in states whose Medicaid programs do not cover the cost of abortion care.

We found that Medicaid coverage of abortion care is associated with a much higher lifetime incidence of abortion among individuals insured by Medicaid. We infer that Medicaid coverage of abortion care costs may have a very large impact on the accessibility of abortion care for low-income women.