Germination response to winter temperature changes with seed shape and length of temperature exposure

In many regions, the climate is changing faster during winter than during the other seasons, and a loss of snow cover combined with increased temperature variability can expose overwintering organisms to harmful conditions. Understanding how species respond to these changes during critical developmental times, such as seed germination, helps us assess the ecological implications of winter climate change. To address this concern, we measured the breaking of seed dormancy and cold tolerance of temperate grassland species in the lab and field. In the lab, we ran germination trials testing the tolerance of 17 species to an extreme cold event. In the field, we deployed seeds of two species within a snow manipulation experiment at three locations and measured germination success biweekly from seeds subjected to ambient and reduced snow cover from winter into spring. From lab trials, cold tolerance varied among species, with seed germination decreasing <10%-100% following extreme cold events. Cold tolerance was related to seed traits, specifically less round seeds, seeds that required cold stratification, and seeds that mature later in the season tended to be more impacted by extreme cold temperatures. This variation in seed cold tolerance may contribute to altered community composition with continued winter climate change. In the field, germination increased through late winter, coinciding with the accumulation of days where temperatures were favorable for cold stratification. Through spring, germination success decreased as warm temperatures accumulated. Collectively, species-specific seed cold tolerances and mortality rates may contribute to compositional changes in grasslands under continued winter climate change.