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Projecting the clinical burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation
Glenn M Chertow1, Ricardo Correa-Rotter2, Kai-Uwe Eckardt3
1Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford Palo Alto, CA 94305, USA.
Insights
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is rising globally, with projections showing 436.6 million cases by 2027. Early screening and policy interventions are crucial for managing this growing burden and its complications.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant global health issue, exacerbated by type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and an aging population.
- The 'Inside CKD' initiative aims to increase awareness of the substantial burden posed by CKD worldwide.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the clinical burden of CKD from 2022 to 2027 using a peer-reviewed microsimulation model.
- To project the prevalence of CKD, kidney replacement therapy, cardiovascular complications, comorbidities, and mortality in affected populations.
Main Methods:
- A microsimulation method was employed, utilizing demographic data from the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific/Middle East.
- Virtual populations were generated to project CKD-related health outcomes over a five-year period.
Main Results:
- CKD prevalence is projected to reach 436.6 million cases by 2027, a 5.8% increase from 2022, with approximately 80% remaining undiagnosed.
- By 2027, CKD patients are projected to experience high rates of heart failure (8859/100,000), myocardial infarction (10,244/100,000), and stroke (7797/100,000).
Conclusions:
- The clinical impact of CKD is substantial and expected to grow, highlighting the need for improved management strategies.
- Health policy interventions focusing on screening, early diagnosis, and effective treatments are essential to mitigate the increasing burden of CKD and its complications.
Background:
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global concern that presents significant challenges for disease management. Several factors drive CKD prevalence, including primary risk factors, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, and an ageing population. Inside CKD is an international initiative that aims to raise awareness of the substantial burden incurred by CKD.
Methods:
Using a peer-reviewed microsimulation method, the clinical burden of CKD was estimated from 2022 to 2027. Demographic data from the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific/Middle East were used to generate virtual populations and to project the prevalence of CKD, kidney replacement therapy, associated cardiovascular complications, comorbid conditions, and all-cause mortality in the CKD population over the modelled time frame.
Findings:
Across the 31 participating countries/regions, the total prevalence of CKD was projected to rise to 436.6 million cases by 2027 (an increase of 5.8% from 2022), with most cases (∼80%) undiagnosed. Inside CKD projected a mean of 8859 cases of heart failure, 10,244 of myocardial infarction, and 7797 of stroke per 100,000 patients with CKD by 2027.
Interpretation:
The clinical impact of CKD is substantial and likely to increase; the high prevalence of undiagnosed cases and associated complications may benefit from the implementation of health policy interventions that promote screening, earlier diagnosis, and interventions to improve outcomes.
Funding:
AstraZeneca.
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