Estimation of the population at high risk of developing lung cancer in Chile using simplified eligibility criteria

Several countries in different global regions are implementing lung cancer (LC) screening programmes. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of the Chilean population ≥15 years who are at high risk of developing LC.

Cross-sectional study.

Data from the Chilean National Health Survey were used in this study. Information on age and history of tobacco consumption were retrieved to estimate national and regional proportions of the Chilean population ≥15 years who are at high risk of developing LC, according to the inclusion criteria in the NELSON trial, NLST trial and USPSTF2021 recommendations. Stratified analyses were performed by sex and quartiles of monthly household income.

An estimated 292,158 (2.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-2.8), 174,196 (1.3%; 95% CI 0.9-1.7) and 404,751 (3.1%; 95% CI 2.4-3.8) of Chileans are at high risk of LC according to NELSON and NLST trial inclusion criteria and USPSTF2021 recommendations, respectively. Proportions of males who are at high risk were higher in comparison to females. The highest proportion of people who are at high risk was found in the lowest household income quartile. Regionally, the lowest percentage of Chileans who are at high risk was found in La Araucanía and the highest in Magallanes y Antártica.

There is a relevant number of Chileans who are at high risk of developing LC. Policymakers in Chile should enhance tobacco control efforts to reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and also explore the implementation of LC screening programmes to reduce the burden of LC.