A risk-prediction score about colorectal lesions based on the Chinese population of high-risk participants aged 50-65 years

X Zhao ¹, H Li ², L Jin ³

¹School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China; Department of Colorectal Surgery, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China.
²Department of Gastroenterology, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China.
³Department of Colorectal Surgery, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China; School of Integrative Medicine, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China.
⁴Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, Hebei, China.
⁵Department of Clinical Laboratory, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China.
⁶Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
⁷Department of Neurology, Tianjin Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine Affiliated Hospital, Tianjin, China.
⁸Department of Colorectal Surgery, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China; The Institute of Translational Medicine, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China; Tianjin Institute of Coloproctology, Tianjin, China.
⁹Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, Hebei, China; Institute of Cancer, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, Hebei, China.
¹⁰Information Office, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China.
¹¹Department of Immunology, Nankai University School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China.

⁰School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China; Department of Colorectal Surgery, Tianjin Union Medical Center, Tianjin, China.

Public Health +

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July 16, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

A new risk-prediction score (RPS) effectively identifies individuals at high risk for colorectal lesions, aiding in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and secondary prevention. This score enhances early detection and management of CRC.

Area Of Science

Oncology
Gastroenterology
Preventive Medicine

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a significant health concern, necessitating improved screening strategies.
Current screening methods can be enhanced for greater efficiency in identifying high-risk individuals.

Purpose Of The Study

To develop and validate an effective risk-prediction score (RPS) for colorectal lesions (CL).
To improve the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening and facilitate secondary prevention efforts.

Main Methods

A cohort of 14,398 high-risk individuals (aged 50-65) was analyzed.
Logistic regression models were used to construct the RPS based on baseline characteristics.
Predictive performance was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and area under the curve (AUC).

Main Results

Male sex, advanced age, smoking, alcohol consumption, high BMI, and prior polyp detection were associated with increased CL risk.
The RPS demonstrated significant predictive value, with higher scores correlating to increased odds of CL.
The AUC for CL prediction by RPS was 0.61 (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The developed RPS efficiently identifies individuals with multiple colorectal lesions.
Integrating the RPS into existing screening protocols can help identify very high-risk individuals.
This approach may contribute to the secondary prevention of colorectal cancer.

Keywords:

Colonoscopy Colorectal cancer Colorectal lesions Risk-prediction score

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