Risk prediction models for intensive care unit-acquired weakness in critically ill patients: A systematic review

Intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) is a critical complication that significantly worsens patient prognosis. It is widely thought that risk prediction models can be harnessed to guide preventive interventions. While the number of ICU-AW risk prediction models is increasing, the quality and applicability of these models in clinical practice remain unclear.

The objective of this study was to systematically review published studies on risk prediction models for ICU-AW.

We searched electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), China Science and Technology Periodical Database (VIP), and Wanfang Database) from inception to October 2023 for studies on ICU-AW risk prediction models. Two independent researchers screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies.

A total of 2709 articles were identified. After screening, 25 articles were selected, encompassing 25 risk prediction models. The area under the curve for these models ranged from 0.681 to 0.926. Evaluation of bias risk indicated that all included models exhibited a high risk of bias, with three models demonstrating poor applicability. The top five predictors among these models were mechanical ventilation duration, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, blood lactate levels, and the length of ICU stay. The combined area under the curve of the ten validation models was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-0.88), indicating a strong discriminative ability.

Overall, ICU-AW risk prediction models demonstrate promising discriminative ability. However, further optimisation is needed to address limitations, including data source heterogeneity, potential biases in study design, and the need for robust statistical validation. Future efforts should prioritise external validation of existing models or the development of high-quality predictive models with superior performance.

The protocol for this study is registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (registration number: CRD42023453187).