Mate selection and current trends in the prevalence of autism

According to the most recent U.S. CDC surveillance data, the rise in prevalence of childhood autism spectrum disorder among minority children has begun to outpace that of non-Hispanic white children. Since prior research has identified possible differences in the extent of mate selection for autistic traits across families of different ethnicity, this study examined variation in autism related traits in contemporaneous, epidemiologically ascertained samples of spousal pairs representing Hispanic and non-Hispanic white populations. The purpose was to determine whether discrepancies by ethnicity could contribute to differential increases in prevalence in the current generation of young children.

Birth records were used to identify all twin pairs born between 2011 and 2013 in California and Missouri. Families were selected at random from pools of English-speaking Hispanic families in California and Non-Hispanic White families in Missouri. Autistic trait data of parents was obtained using the Adult Report Form of the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS-2).

We did not identify a statistically significant difference in the degree of mate selection for autism related traits between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white spousal pairs. However, the degree of spousal correlation observed in this recent cohort was pronounced (on the order of ICC 0.45) and exceeded that typically reported in prior research (on the order of 0.30), surpassing also widely reported estimates for sibling correlation (also on the order of 0.30).

The sample did not allow for a direct appraisal of change in the magnitude of spousal correlation over time and the ascertainments of trait burden were derived from spouse report.

Across two epidemiologically ascertained samples of spousal pairs representing Hispanic and non-Hispanic white families across two U.S. states (respectively, California and Missouri), the extent of autism-related trait co-variation for parents of the current generation of young children is substantial and exceeds correlations typically observed for siblings. Given the heritability of these traits and their relation to autism risk, societal trends in the degree of mate selection for these traits should be considered as possible contributors to subtle increases in the incidence of autism over time and across generations.