Thailand's China policy, 2014-2019: Hedging against China?

Area of Science:

• International Relations
• Political Science
• Asian Studies

Background:

• The Thai government faced criticism for perceived excessive accommodation of Chinese demands.
• This perception suggested a bandwagoning policy towards China.

Purpose of the Study:

• To critically evaluate the criticism of Thailand's China policy under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
• To analyze the strategic behavior of the NCPO government in its dealings with China between 2014 and 2019.

Main Methods:

• Application of Kuik's hedging theory to analyze Thailand's foreign policy.
• Case study analysis of three specific instances of Thailand-China policy interactions.
• Examination of domestic factors influencing foreign policy decisions, particularly regime legitimacy.

Main Results:

• The NCPO government employed a dual strategy of limited bandwagoning and dominance-denial.
• Thailand's foreign policy maneuvers were significantly influenced by domestic considerations, including regime legitimacy.
• The government actively managed its relationship with China rather than passively accommodating demands.

Conclusions:

• Thailand's foreign policy towards China during the NCPO era was not simple bandwagoning.
• The observed behavior aligns with hedging, a strategy of balancing competing interests.
• Regime legitimacy played a crucial role in shaping this hedging behavior.