[Ecosystem Services Assessment and Multi-Scenario Prediction in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020]

Ecosystem service assessment and prediction play a crucial role in sustainable regional development and resource management. Liaoning Province, as a typical representative of Northeast China, faces rapid development challenges such as urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural modernization. At the same time, there is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the evolution trends of its ecosystems and their impact on ecosystem services. This study employed the InVEST-Markov-PLUS model to conduct simulated research on the assessment of past and future ecosystem services and multi-scenario predictions in Liaoning Province. Based on the land-use changes in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020, the InVEST model was used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in the ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the equivalent factor method was employed to calculate the value of ecosystem services in Liaoning Province during the same period. Furthermore, by integrating the PLUS and Markov models with the actual conditions of Liaoning Province, four land-use development scenarios for 2030 were constructed, including natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, and cropland protection. The land-use distribution and the quantities and values of ecosystem services under these scenarios were simulated. The study revealed the following findings： ① From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province showed an overall increasing trend, whereas water yield exhibited a fluctuating decrease trend initially, followed by an increase and then another decrease. ② Carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province showed higher values in the eastern mountainous areas and western hilly regions, with lower values in the central region. Water yield showed a decreasing trend from east to west. ③ The value of ecosystem services increased from 547.94 billion yuan to 565.53 billion yuan, with a total increase of 17.58 billion yuan during the study period. All four types of services showed an increase, with cultural services experiencing the fastest change. ④ In 2030, carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province decreased in all scenarios except for in the ecological protection scenario. Water yield increased only in the cropland protection scenario, whereas it decreased in the other three scenarios. The value of ecosystem services in the study area increased in all scenarios except for in the economic priority scenario.