Temperature and firearm violence in four US cities: testing competing hypotheses

Area of Science:

• Environmental Criminology
• Public Health
• Sociology

Background:

• Firearm violence is a significant public health concern in the United States.
• Evidence suggests a correlation between elevated ambient temperatures and firearm violence incidents.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between temperature and firearm violence.
• To test the temperature-aggression theory against the routine activities theory.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of shooting incidents in Chicago, Cincinnati, New York, and Philadelphia.
• Utilized daily maximum temperature and its deviation from 30-year averages.
• Employed generalized linear autoregressive moving average models.

Main Results:

• Increased shooting incidents were associated with deviations in daily maximum temperature across all four cities.
• A significant positive association was found between daily maximum temperature and shooting incidence.
• An interaction term also showed a positive association, reinforcing the temperature-violence link.

Conclusions:

• Findings align with prior research on temperature and firearm violence.
• Results provide further support for the temperature-aggression theory as a primary driver.
• The study highlights the impact of environmental factors on violent crime.