Spotting Culex pipiens from satellite: modeling habitat suitability in central Italy using Sentinel-2 and deep...

Culex pipiens, an important vector of many vector borne diseases, is a species capable to feeding on a wide variety of hosts and adapting to different environments. To predict the potential distribution of Cx. pipiens in central Italy, this study integrated presence/absence data from a four-year entomological survey (2019-2022) carried out in the Abruzzo and Molise regions, with a datacube of spectral bands acquired by Sentinel-2 satellites, as patches of 224 × 224 pixels of 20 meters spatial resolution around each site and for each satellite revisit time. We investigated three scenarios: the baseline model, which considers the environmental conditions at the time of collection; the multitemporal model, focusing on conditions in the 2 months preceding the collection; and the MultiAdjacency Graph Attention Network (MAGAT) model, which accounts for similarities in temperature and nearby sites using a graph architecture. For the baseline scenario, a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) analyzed a single multi-band Sentinel-2 image. The DCNN in the multitemporal model extracted temporal patterns from a sequence of 10 multispectral images; the MAGAT model incorporated spatial and climatic relationships among sites through a graph neural network aggregation method. For all models, we also evaluated temporal lags between the multi-band Earth Observation datacube date of acquisition and the mosquito collection, from 0 to 50 days. The study encompassed a total of 2,555 entomological collections, and 108,064 images (patches) at 20 meters spatial resolution. The baseline model achieved an F1 score higher than 75.8% for any temporal lag, which increased up to 81.4% with the multitemporal model. The MAGAT model recorded the highest F1 score of 80.9%. The study confirms the widespread presence of Cx. pipiens throughout the majority of the surveyed area. Utilizing only Sentinel-2 spectral bands, the models effectively capture early in advance the temporal patterns of the mosquito population, offering valuable insights for directing surveillance activities during the vector season. The methodology developed in this study can be scaled up to the national territory and extended to other vectors, in order to support the Ministry of Health in the surveillance and control strategies for the vectors and the diseases they transmit.