Analysis on the spatial correlation network and driving factors of carbon emissions in China's logistics industry

Promoting the green development of the logistics industry has become a focal point of attention in China. This study combines an improved gravity model and social network analysis method, focusing on the nineteen provinces of the Yangtze Economic Belt and Yellow River Basin. It constructs a spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the logistics industry from 2010 to 2021, exploring its formation mechanism and spatial evolution characteristics. The study utilizes a quadratic assignment procedure model to investigate internal driving factors. Building upon this, the study employs an improved STIRPAT model to predict the emission reduction path of the future logistics industry. Results are as follows: (1) Carbon consumption is most pronounced in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. The carbon emission shows the characteristics of larger downstream; (2) The bridges of carbon emission-related networks gradually shift from Shandong to Shanxi, Anhui, and Sichuan. Carbon emissions in each sector and spatial spillover effects exhibit dynamic correlations and interactive influences; (3) Energy intensity, freight volume, and the spatial correlation network of the logistics industry are highly correlated; (4) The overall carbon emissions from the logistics industry show a decreasing trend in the future. Anhui and Shaanxi provinces will have high carbon emissions in 2035. The conclusions aim to provide policy suggestions for the region's low-carbon transformation.