Comparing standardised precipitation and barley yield across Quebec.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Climate change and variability significantly impact global crop production, with Quebec being particularly affected.
• Understanding the climate-yield nexus is crucial for agricultural sustainability.
• Limited research exists on the relationship between precipitation and barley yield in Quebec.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the relationship between standardized precipitation index (SPI) and barley yield gaps in Quebec.
• To compare precipitation and yield gaps across peripheral and southern/central regions of Quebec.
• To identify regional climate-yield patterns and their drivers.

Main Methods:

• Utilized growing season precipitation data from Ouranos and barley yield data from Institut de la Statistique du Québec.
• Employed the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to assess precipitation anomalies.
• Applied a machine learning algorithm to calculate yield gaps (actual minus projected barley yield).

Main Results:

• Peripheral regions (Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Outaouais) exhibited negative SPIs and more yield gap years.
• Southern/central regions (Estrie, Centre du Québec, Montérégie) showed positive SPIs and fewer yield gap years.
• A distinct south-north gradient was observed in SPI variations and yield gaps across Quebec.

Conclusions:

• The observed south-north gradient in climate-yield patterns is likely influenced by prolonged winters and rapid snowmelt in northern Quebec, shortening the barley growing season.
• Drought-resistant crop varieties and further research into precipitation patterns and economic impacts are recommended policy actions.
• Future research should investigate daily/monthly liquid precipitation and the economic implications of yield gaps and temperature impacts.