Male twinning after the 2008 Obama election: A test of symbolic empowerment

On November 4, 2008, Barack Obama was elected the first Black President of the United States. His campaign and electoral win served as a symbol of hope for a more just future, fostering an "Obama effect" that appears associated with improved well-being among non-Hispanic (NH) Black communities. Situating the Obama election within the symbolic empowerment framework, we consider the potentially protective role of the Obama election on NH Black fetal death, an important but understudied measure of perinatal health that has stark racial disparities. Using restricted-use natality files from the National Center for Health Statistics, we proxy fetal death using the male twin rate (number of twins per 1000 male live births). Male twins have a relatively high risk of in utero selection that is sensitive to maternal and environmental stressors, making the twin rate an important marker of fetal death. We then estimate interrupted time-series models to assess the relation between the Obama election and male twin rates among NH Black births across monthly conception cohorts (February 2003-October 2008). Greater-than-expected male twin rates signal less susceptibility to fetal loss. Results indicate a 4.5% higher male twin rate among all NH Black cohorts exposed in utero to the Obama election, after accounting for historical and NH white trends (p < 0.005). The greater-than-expected rates concentrated among births conceived in the months preceding Obama's nomination at the Democratic National Convention and Obama's presidential win. These results suggest a salutary perinatal response to election events that likely reduced NH Black fetal loss. They also indicate the possibility that sociopolitical shifts can mitigate persisting NH Black-NH white disparities in perinatal health.