Risk assessment of aflatoxin in Iowa corn post-harvest using an event tree analysis: A case study

Area of Science:

• Agricultural science
• Food safety
• Mycotoxicology

Background:

• Mycotoxins, such as aflatoxin (AFL), are fungal metabolites in corn, with increasing global prevalence due to climate change.
• AFL poses significant risks to human and animal health, traversing complex US grain supply chains.
• Effective risk management of AFL in corn, a vital food and feed source, is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the probabilities of critical events related to AFL in corn within Food Safety Modernization Act-regulated entities using event tree analysis (ETA).
• To develop targeted recommendations for AFL risk management based on ETA findings.

Main Methods:

• An event tree analysis (ETA) was employed, utilizing historical AFL prevalence data in Iowa exceeding a 20-part per billion (ppb) threshold.
• The analysis focused on identifying single-point failures within feed safety systems designed to detect AFL contamination.

Main Results:

• The study identified four single-point failures where safety countermeasures failed to detect AFL contamination (>20 ppb).
• The system demonstrated an average success rate of 50.14% and a failure rate of 49.86% in detecting contaminated corn.
• Failure was defined as a Type II error: failing to detect corn with AFL >20 ppb.

Conclusions:

• Risk-informed decisions are essential for effective AFL monitoring in corn.
• Timely intervention strategies are necessary to mitigate the impact of AFL on end users.
• The high failure rate underscores the need for improved detection and management systems for AFL in the corn supply chain.