The link between EU identification and responses to a war between non-EU countries over time

The European Union (EU) is portrayed as a "normative power" that promotes democracy. How does identifying with the EU identity predict citizens' responses to a war between two non-EU countries, where one (Ukraine) appears as the victim (i.e., a nation suffering significant harm as a result of military aggression by another country) and the other (Russia) as the aggressor (i.e., a nation initiating military aggression against another country)? This study tested two contrasting, yet not mutually exclusive hypotheses. Based on the underlying idea that Ukraine is perceived to share similar (European) values while Russia is perceived to deviate from these values, the "humanitarian influence of the EU identity hypothesis" hypothesized that identification with the EU identity predicts increased support for the victim group (Ukraine) and condemnation of the aggressor group over time. Based on the "protective effect of EU identity hypothesis," however, a reverse temporal order was also hypothesized. We conducted a two two-wave study among Greek participants. Our findings provided full support for the first hypothesis and partial support for the second hypothesis. Identification with EU identity predicts increasingly stronger opposition to an intergroup conflict between non-EU countries.